Financial Model Overview
The Phase I financing model at a glance — three scenarios on a single swing variable (absorption), with the Expected case as the financing plan and the Conservative case as the underwriting floor.
Three scenarios, one swing variable
Pricing and absorption pace define the scenarios; absorption is the swing variable in every one. The Expected case is the financing plan, underwritten and stress-tested to the Conservative floor; the Optimal case quantifies upside only.
| Measure | Conservative | Expected (Base) | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Membership pricing / pace | $150K · 20/yr | $250K · 30/yr | $300K · 50/yr |
| Completed Phase I RE value | $84.0M | $128.7M | $195.0M |
| 60% LTV debt capacity | $50.4M | $77.2M | $117.0M |
| Permanent equity required | $53.8M | $6.1M | ($62.7M) surplus |
| Peak construction-period equity | — | ~$15.8M | — |
| Recurring dues (stabilized P-I) | $1.8M | $5.0M | $7.5M |
| Verdict | Heavy equity | Financeable | Self-funding surplus |
Interactive tools
Financial-forecasting tool
Projected recurring revenue from opening (2033) to maturity, by membership-absorption scenario. Dues build with the active-member base; ancillary revenue activates from the sixth operating year.
Dues at $50,000 per member; ancillary revenue scales toward ~$8.7M/yr. Capacity is treated as a long-run ceiling of 1,515 members.
Return-on-investment calculator
An illustrative equity-return model: stabilized recurring revenue, an operating margin, and an exit multiple imply an enterprise value, equity value, equity multiple, and indicative annualized return on the equity invested.
Illustrative only; assumes the construction facility is repaid at stabilization. Returns are highly sensitive to absorption and exit multiple, which the decision-maker should test independently.
Sensitivity analysis
Set the base case, then see how the permanent equity required swings when each driver moves across its full range while the others hold. Absorption pace is the dominant lever.
Equity model calibrated to the three financing scenarios. Bars to the right of the base line indicate a higher equity requirement; bars to the left a lower requirement or surplus.
What the model is sensitive to
Absorption pace
Membership pricing
Construction cost
Reserve discipline