Risk Analysis
A nine-category construction and project risk taxonomy carried into a scored register. The dominant finding: the construction total is largely solved and contingency-protected; the binding risks are entitlement timing and sales absorption.
Risk categories
Risks are identified across nine categories plus taxation; the regulatory and tax content is set in California / Santa Barbara County. Scoring is likelihood (1–5) × impact (1–5) = exposure (1–25); bands 1–6 Low, 8–12 Medium, 15–25 High.
Topographical
Environmental
Infrastructure & capacity
Safety & compliance
Economic & operational
Technological
Regulatory & legal
Sociopolitical
Natural & climate
Scored risk register
Principal SBRC project risks, scored (L = likelihood, I = impact, E = exposure).
| Risk (category) | L | I | E | Mitigation / owner | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Entitlement / permitting delay (regulatory) | 4 | 4 | 16 | Early county pre-application; technical-study suite; phasing. PMO / entitlement lead |
| R2 | RE / membership absorption shortfall (economic) | 4 | 5 | 20 | Underwrite to conservative pace; pricing study; pre-sales test; $10M reserve. Owner / IAG |
| R3 | Construction cost overrun (economic) | 3 | 4 | 12 | 12% contingency; three-point estimate; monthly budget-vs-actual. PMO / GC |
| R4 | Supply-chain / long-lead (operational) | 3 | 3 | 9 | Early ordering; vendor-capacity vetting. PMO / procurement |
| R5 | Geotechnical / drainage (topographical) | 2 | 4 | 8 | Flat-site design; geotechnical and drainage studies. Civil engineer |
| R6 | Seismic / wildfire / weather (natural) | 2 | 4 | 8 | California seismic design; fire provisions; weather buffer. Design team |
| R7 | Financing / loan timing gap (economic) | 3 | 4 | 12 | 60% LTV facility; staged deposits; ~$15.8M peak equity. Owner / IAG-FIN |
| R8 | Public opposition — noise / traffic | 3 | 3 | 9 | Acoustic and traffic studies; siting buffer; TMP; outreach. PMO / liaison |
| R9 | FIA design-intent / future rework (safety) | 2 | 3 | 6 | Build run-off and barriers into the core; defer homologation. Track designer |
| R10 | Construction-zone safety incident (safety) | 2 | 4 | 8 | Daily logs/audits; course-of-construction insurance. GC / safety officer |
| R11 | Utility relocation complexity (infrastructure) | 3 | 3 | 9 | Early utility coordination; phased design. Civil / MEP |
| R12 | Cybersecurity / member-data (technological) | 2 | 3 | 6 | Backup timing systems; secured plans; data protection. IT / operations |
| R13 | Tax treatment misstep (taxation) | 2 | 4 | 8 | California tax counsel on deferral, entity, Prop 13, TOT. Owner / counsel |
Priority
High exposure (E ≥ 15)
Medium (8–12)
Dominant theme